Methods of Forecasting with the use of Power Trend

Jan Purczyński

doi:https://doi.org/10.59139/ps.2009.02.4

Jan Purczyński Uniwersytet Szczeciński Przegląd Statystyczny. Statistical Review, vol. 56, 2009, 2, pages: 52-66 Published online: 30 June 2009 DOI https://doi.org/10.59139/ps.2009.02.4

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ARTICLE

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ABSTRACT

In this paper selected aspects concerning the use of power trend in the forecasting process were considered. Approximate methods for estimating trend parameters (equations (12)-(15)) were proposed. The methods yielded results similar to results given by least squares method (LSM). Formula (35) determining ex ante error of the forecast determined by the approximate methods and LSM for random element additive model was defined. Computer simulations were done – including three models of random element (additive, multiplicative, mixed) – with the aim of determining the range of usefulness of logarithmic transformation method, LSM and the approximate methods.

KEYWORDS

forecasting, estimation of power trend parameters, forecast ex ante error, computer simulations

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